Goldman Sachs analysis: Harris’ plans would boost economy, Trump’s would hurt it
Former President Donald Trump’s economic plans would bring more inflation, lower GDP, and slower job growth.
Vice President Kamala Harris’ economic proposals would be better for the economy than former President Donald Trump’s plans, according to an assessment by economists at Goldman Sachs reviewed by multiple outlets.
Should Harris win in November with Democratic majorities in Congress, the economists predicted her proposed investments and tax credits for middle-income families would bring a small increase in the nation’s gross domestic product for 2025-2026.
Harris has said she would help those earning under $400,000 annually through increased child tax credits, an expanded earned income tax credit, financial assistance for first-time home buyers, and an increase in the corporate tax rate.
Trump has proposed to make permanent the expiring portions of his 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which slashed tax rates for the richest Amerians but provided minimal savings or tax hikes for everyone else. He has also promised another tax cut for corporations.
Should Trump regain the White House, the Goldman Sachs economists expect his proposals would reduce GDP next year. “We estimate that if Trump wins in a sweep or with divided government, the hit to growth from tariffs and tighter immigration policy would outweigh the positive fiscal impulse,” they wrote.
They predicted that Trump’s anti-immigration proposals would harm job growth, writing, “We estimate that the contribution from immigration to labor force growth if Harris wins would be 10,000 per month higher than if Trump wins with divided government.” If Trump won with a GOP-led Congress, there would be 30,000 fewer new jobs each month.
The Goldman Sachs economists also warned that Trump’s proposed tariffs on automobile imports and other goods would increase core inflation, driving up prices for consumers.
A Harris campaign spokesperson told Bloomberg, “right, left, or center, experts agree that Trump is threatening an economic disaster.”
“These Wall Street elites would be wise to review the record and acknowledge the shortcomings of their past work if they’d like their new forecasts to be seen as credible,” a Trump aide told the outlet.
The analysis comes days after the nonpartisan Penn Wharton Budget Model at the University of Pennsylvania simulated the economic plans for both candidates. They estimated that Harris’ proposals would be better for lower- and middle-income families and add trillions of dollars less to the national debt than Trump’s would. Trump’s plans, however, would be better for the top 0.1% of earners, who would see an increased after-tax income of $376,910 in 2026.
